emperorblackdoom wrote:
While not wanting to get too involved in this discussion...I have to voice my doubts about this statement. The Chinese would prefer a US withdrawal from Asia--that is why they are aggressively building their navy as we speak. Furthermore, China has no reason to worry whether South Korea or Japan are held 'in check' and one has to wonder if anything really keeps North Korea in check. And Russia's nuclear arsenal will remain in check whether or not the US are in Asia...unless China decides to invade Siberia, of course!
China does indeed fear revival of Japanese militarism. So does South Korea. South Korea is itself a growing power and there are issues regarding sovereingty in the Yellow Sea.
Russia and China have had a very chequered relationship. They fought border wars against each other in the 1960s.
Even with the issue of Taiwan, China had up to the late 1980's maintained two events that would trigger a Chinese invasion of Taiwan:
1. Taiwan declares independence
2. Taiwan's government becomes allied with USSR as opposed to USA.
The Chinese prefered US involvement in the region because of the following reasons:
1. It kept Japanese militarism in check. If the US pulls out of the region, Japan would probably start a rearmament program. This would escalate into an arms race with the Koreans joining in as they do not trust Japan due to historical issues.
2. It keeps both Koreas from going at each others throats (minor skirmishing and sabre rattling aside). It also prevents South Korea from getting too powerful and pushing its weight around in the Yellow Sea.
3. It has since the early 1970's prevented Taiwan from seceeding. US assures Taiwans defence and in return Taiwan doesn't declare independence.
4. Up to 1989-91 it limited Russian/Soviet influence in the Asia Pacific Region. Remember that since the 1960's Sino-Russian border clashes, the only war the Chinese fought was a failed invasion of Soviet backed Vietnam in 1979.
The anti-Russian stance will probably become a priority again as Russia rebuilds it's military, economic and strategic might. I suspect Mongolia will become a factor in this due to suspected massive untapped mineral and oil reserves.
So US participation in the region helps stabilise things. It prevents Japan and South Korea from feeling like they have to engage in an arms race which suits the Chinese fine.
It also helps keep the peace in other strategically important areas such as the Malacca Straits, the Persian Gulf and elsewhere without needing the Chinese to send their own forces into.
In essence the US keeps Chinese defence costs down and thus allow it to spend this funding on capability development.
The US fulfills the same role in Europe. Most European militaries are only token forces as the protection of Europe is handled by the Americans.
emperorblackdoom wrote:
that is why they are aggressively building their navy as we speak!
A crash course in Chinese military history.
Up to the 1990's China's military was based on late 1950's technology that they ripped off the Soviets after the two drifted apart in 1961. These only received minor modifications and improvements up to the 1980's.
Since the 1990's China has been desperately trying to catch up to the rest of the world with purchases of arms from Russia and Israel.
Nonetheless by the 1980's it was the third largest navy and one of the largest armies on the planet.
It is true China has acquired large numbers of ships.
But despite 20 years of pumping lots of cash into it, the People Liberation Army Navy is still a "green water" navy and has very limited offensive capabilities.
Most of the new ships and submarines have gone towards replacing large numbers of obsolete ships and submarines.
The Chinese lack true offensive naval capability and won't have it for at least another couple of decades.
They currently lack the following:
1. Aircraft carriers - an ex-Soviet light carrier is being refurbished to act as a training ship. Apparently two more are to be built but these will take at least 10-15 years to get operational. As China has no history of operating an aircraft carrier a whole new doctrine will have to be implemented.
2. Lack of amphibious assault capability. The have numerous landing craft but lack large ships needed to carry them.
3. Lack of aerial refuelling aircraft - they only have 14 such aircraft (US on the other hand has several hundred and even the French and Brits 14-20 air refuellers a piece).
4. Lack of long range strike capability - they have some ancient H-6 bombers which are a knock off of obsolete Soviet Tu-16's.
China's military has actually shrunk in size as the new equipment is not replacing the cheap old nasty crap on a 1:1 basis so numerous divisions and units have been deactivated.
At some point China will become militarily powerful.
But it will always struggle to project power due to massive long borders and surrounded by past and future potential enemies (India, Russia, Vietnam, Korea, Japan). All of these require the Chinese to maintain large force in China itself. The USA does not have this requirement being surrounded by militarily weak and friendly countries.